Miami vs. FSU Preview: Miami on Verge of Historic Rivals Sweep Not Seen Since 1987

The #3 ranked Miami Hurricanes take on the #18 ranked Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday night at 7:30 PM. Miami is playing like the most dominant team in the nation after defeating #6 Notre Dame, then #18 USF and dominating the Florida Gators. Now Miami opens ACC play as they go on the road for the first time this season. The Canes lead the all time series 36-33 and since 2000 the Canes and Noles are even going 13-13 against each other. So what does Miami need to do to win this game?

Keys To a Win:

This game is not complicated and Miami is easily the best team in the three most important positions. Miami’s defensive line anchored by Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor has been playing like the best defensive line in the nation. The Cane’s defensive line is 2nd in win rate (62%), 6th in pressures (47), 3rd in run defense grade (90.6 PFF), 4th in pass rush grade (89.8) and 2nd in overall PFF grade (92.0). The Canes have the two best pass rushers with Bain ranking 1st in win rate (29.9 %) and Akheem Mesidor ranking 2nd (29.2 %). In short Miami is entering this matchup with a violent defensive line that is playing like the best line in the nation and far and away the best defensive line in the ACC.

The other position where Miami’s dominance is clearly seen is on the offensive line. The Canes have been dominant in the run game averaging 180.2 yards per game at a 4.8 clip without their projected starting running back Jordan Lyle available. Mark Fletcher and CharMar Brown have done a great job and have been dominant but that has been largely to Mirabal’s “Great Wall” of powerful offensive linemen that look like the top group in the nation. Thanks to the massive OL, Carson Beck has had plenty of time to throw and has been sacked just three times this year which is tied for fewest in the nation. Miami dominated Notre Dame’s defensive front who many thought was the best front in the nation. The Miami OL also mauled the Gators, dominating and controlling the game in the middle of a downpour.

The last reason is the most important position and that is quarterback. Carson Beck is 28-3 as a starting quarterback and so far has completed 73.2 % of his passes with 7 touchdowns and three interceptions. He has a great rapport with freshman Malachi Toney and CJ Daniels who have been insanely good to start the year. He does not get rattled in big games or high pressure situations and has the experience to read and identify coverages and take what the defense gives him. I expect a much better game against FSU especially if there is no rain and I expect receivers to not drop key passes.

X- Factors

There are two X- Factors for Miami this game with the first one being Jordan Lyle. Lyle was slated to be RB1 this year before he got hurt. He is now fully healthy and Miami who produces 180 rush yards per game has no one on the team with that type of speed at the position. Lyle has game changer ability as he can take a hand off for 70-90 yards and change the makeup of the game completely. Miami will have two battering rams in Fletcher and Brown with a bullet train in Lyle that will be ready to blow things open at any minute.

The other X factor that I expect will make significant impact is not a player but a coach. I expect a masterclass of a performance from Corey Hetherman as a defensive coordinator. In his inaugural season as Miami’s defensive coordinator, Hetherman has instilled a physical, communicative unit that ranks among the nation’s elite, allowing just 11.5 points and 244.5 yards per game while generating 70 pressures and 17 tackles for loss, a stark improvement from the Hurricanes’ leaky 2024 defense. His experience defending similar offenses such as Chip Lindsey’s Malzahn-disciple system at UNC equips him to counter FSU’s rushing attack, which has amassed over 1,300 yards at nearly seven yards per carry, by emphasizing edge containment, quarterback spies for dual-threat star Tommy Castellanos, and gap discipline to disrupt Malzahn’s wizardry in the run game. With extra preparation time from a bye week, Hetherman’s aggressive, positionless scheme could frustrate FSU’s top-ranked offense (53 points per game), forcing turnovers and limiting explosives in a rivalry matchup where defensive control often decides the outcome.

FSU Players to Watch For

Although Miami is clearly the most talented team, there are three players on FSU that Miami needs to prioritize in their schemes this Saturday. Micahi Danzy, the redshirt freshman wide receiver for Florida State, emerges as a dynamic playmaker whose elite speed makes him a must-watch against Miami’s secondary. Capable of hitting 24 mph on the track, earning All-ACC First Team honors as a true freshman, Danzy has translated that blazing pace into explosive offensive contributions, including three rushing touchdowns on long runs of 32, 53, and 64 yards through the early 2025 games, alongside key receptions like 47- and 65-yard catches. Transitioning from running back to wideout under Gus Malzahn’s scheme, the Tallahassee native’s versatility allows him to stretch the field vertically, create mismatches in the slot or backfield, and ignite jet sweeps or end-arounds that could exploit Miami’s aggressive defense, potentially turning short gains into game-breaking scores in this high-stakes rivalry.



Duce Robinson, the towering 6-foot-6 transfer wide receiver from USC, poses a matchup nightmare for Miami’s defensive backs with his size, athleticism, and red-zone dominance. In his Seminoles debut season, Robinson has posted standout performances like 173 receiving yards and two touchdowns on an 82-yard catch against East Texas A&M, plus 147 yards and a score versus Virginia, building on his prior USC career of 39 catches for 747 yards and seven touchdowns. As an FSU legacy, son of former Seminole Dominic Robinson, his contested-catch prowess (7-of-7 per PFF) and deep-threat ability (averaging over 20 yards per reception in past seasons) could feast on Miami’s coverage, especially in jump-ball situations or as a pseudo-tight end, forcing defenders to respect his massive catch radius and potentially flipping the field in key situations.

Tommy Castellanos, Florida State’s dual-threat senior quarterback transferred from Boston College, commands attention as the engine of the nation’s top-scoring offense, blending arm talent with elite mobility that could test Miami’s front seven. With career stats of 3,614 passing yards and 33 touchdowns alongside 1,307 rushing yards and 15 scores highlighted by his 2025 debut of 152 passing and 78 rushing yards in an upset win over No. 8 Alabama, Castellanos thrives in broken pockets, having been sacked just twice this season while manipulating pressure and extending plays. Under familiar coordinator Gus Malzahn from their UCF days, his rushing prowess (third in ACC last year) and quick-strike passing to targets like Robinson could dismantle Miami’s containment strategies, making him the ultimate X-factor in dictating tempo and forcing defensive adjustments in this pivotal ACC clash.

Prediction

In the end this game will come down to what team is most talented. Not only is Miami the more talented team and has better players on the offensive line, defensive line and at the quarterback position, but the Canes are literred with NFL quality players. Mark Fletcher, Jordan Lyle, Xavier Lucas, CJ Daniels, Zechariah Poyser and the list goes on and on. It is hard to imagine who are the NFL level players for the Noles outside of Robinson and Danzy. Castellanos is an average to below average type quarterback that has inflated stats as he has played two middle school teams. The Noles don’t have anything close to a Bain/ Mesidor/ Lightfoot talent on the DL nor do they have a Mauigoa or Bell or Cooper / Okunlola on the offensive line. All those guys mentioned above are some of many soon to be NFL starter quality NFL players. Miami is in a different league and all the talk and trash talk and hype is basically for fans to talk on X and reminiss about a time when both programs were on the same page talent wise. Sadly, FSU is an overrated paper tiger coming off a 2-10 season that has many flaws and one lucky win against a half asleep Bama. I see this game ending in a blowout as Miami’s talent will overwhelm the Noles ending this game by mid third quarter, as Miami moves to 5-0 on the season and secure their first ACC win winning all of their state of Florida matchups and going a perfect 3-0 against Notre Dame, The Gators and Noles accomplishing that feat for the first time since 1987.

Canes-40
Noles-17
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