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Miami Ranks No. 21 in ESPN’s Football Power Index and Future Game Projections



The Miami Hurricanes clinched a grueling double-overtime victory, 28-20, over the Clemson Tigers last Saturday.

That win marked Miami, with a 5-2 record, including 1-2 in the Atlantic Coast Conference, securing its first triumph against an ACC opponent in 2023. Now, the question arises: What are reasonable expectations for UM in the latter part of the season? To provide some insight, let’s turn to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) for guidance.

The ESPN FPI, an analytical tool, currently positions Miami as the 21st best team in the nation. It also places Miami’s offense at 20th nationally, while the defense is ranked 22nd. This ranking remains consistent with last week’s assessment. To grasp the essence of the ESPN FPI, it gauges a team’s strength, striving to be an accurate forecaster of future performance. It reveals how many points above or below the average a team stands. The predictions rely on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season, incorporating FPI, past outcomes, and the forthcoming schedule.

When we delve into UM’s projected performance in their five remaining regular-season games, the FPI currently projects Miami to finish with an 8.3-3.7 record, which is beginning to lean toward a 9-3 finish from its current 8-4 projection.

The FPI places Miami at 37th in the nation in terms of the strength of schedule for their remaining games. Here’s a glance at the upcoming matchups and their respective win probabilities, according to the FPI:

  • October 28th, hosting Virginia Cavaliers (2-5, 1-2 ACC) – 91.4% win probability.
  • November 4th, at North Carolina State Wolfpack (4-3, 1-2 ACC) – 74.0% win probability.
  • November 11th, at Florida State Seminoles (7-0, 5-0 ACC) – 19.8% win probability.
  • November 18th, hosting Louisville Cardinals (6-1, 3-1 ACC) – 66.5% win probability.
  • November 24th, at Boston College Eagles (4-3, 2-2 ACC) – 81.1% win probability.

The next challenge on the horizon for Miami is a home game against the Virginia Cavaliers, who upset the previously undefeated North Carolina Tar Heels with a 31-27 victory on Saturday.