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Miami Hurricanes vs Louisville Preview and Prediction

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credit: Canes Football

The #6 ranked Miami Hurricanes (6-0, 2-0 ACC) will face off against the Louisville Cardinals (4-2, 2-2 ACC) this Saturday at noon. Miami is coming off two thrilling victories, narrowly defeating both Virginia Tech and the Cal Golden Bears. Earlier in the year, this game was seen by most pundits as the most challenging matchup on Miami’s schedule. However, Louisville has dropped two games—against Notre Dame and SMU—and has struggled offensively compared to last season. What must Miami do to win?

The most concerning issue for Miami right now is their defense. The Hurricanes have been gashed by both Cal and Virginia Tech, neither of which possess particularly strong offenses. Virginia Tech ran for over 200 yards against Miami, and while the Hurricanes improved their run defense against Cal, they were caught off guard by misdirection, eye candy, and trick plays, allowing Cal to run up the score. Miami has surrendered seven plays of 50+ yards this season, four of which came against a previously struggling Cal offense.

Part of the problem is that Miami’s tackling has been uncharacteristically poor, especially at the linebacker and safety positions. If Miami continues to miss tackles at their current rate, it’s only a matter of time before a disciplined, albeit average, team defeats them. Defensive backs have repeatedly been caught out of position, making costly mistakes that lead to big gains or touchdowns. To win, the Hurricanes must play disciplined, assignment-based football and make stopping big plays their top defensive priority.

It will be interesting to see how defensive coordinator Lance Guidry calls this game and adjusts his strategy. Will he shuffle personnel or stick with the same formations that have exposed his defense? While Guidry has been solid for the most part, he bears some responsibility for the team’s defensive struggles over the last two weeks. Last year, Brohm’s Louisville offense put up 38 points against Guidry’s defense, exploiting the Canes’ vulnerabilities by repeatedly targeting tight ends. Guidry failed to adjust, allowing Louisville to open up their offense and hand Miami a loss. Although the Hurricanes’ defense is far from elite, there are obvious holes in Louisville’s offense this season. In their four games against Power 5 opponents, the Cardinals are averaging only 25.5 points per game. Guidry, in his days at Marshall, orchestrated a defensive masterclass to shut down a more talented Notre Dame team. With the talent he has at Miami, the tools are in place to win this game. The big question is whether Guidry will adapt. For me, this game is crucial in determining whether Guidry can evolve into a top-tier defensive coordinator at the Power 5 level.

Offensively, Miami must come out firing. The Hurricanes cannot afford a slow start on the road, especially against a team hosting its biggest recruiting weekend and playing in front of a raucous crowd eager to upset a top-10 team. Miami’s slow starts against Cal and Virginia Tech nearly cost them, and a subpar first half on offense this weekend could put them in serious danger.

Prediction


This is the most important game on Miami’s schedule and likely the toughest remaining opponent. If the Hurricanes can tighten up defensively, Cam Ward and the offense should be more than capable of securing a comfortable win. While it will be a road game, and I expect Louisville to give Miami their best shot, I believe in this Hurricanes team. Cam Ward is a special talent, and the signs of a cultural shift within the program are becoming evident. Despite the recent defensive lapses, I trust Lance Guidry to make the necessary adjustments, which is why I see Miami playing their most focused game since their victory over the Florida Gators and winning convincingly.

Canes 44, Cardinals 27

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