As the Miami Hurricanes prepare to open the season against the Florida Gators at The Swamp this Saturday, I cannot recall the last time a Canes team entered a season with such high expectations and pressure to win. Mario Cristobal is entering year three of a massive rebuilding project. In his first two seasons at the helm, the Canes have a 12-12 record, including a bowl loss last year to Rutgers. Despite the Canes’ mediocre play, Cristobal has stacked the roster with two consecutive top-seven recruiting classes and was one of the most aggressive teams this year in both the Fall and Spring Portal windows, adding significant talent across the board. In fact, Miami now resembles a top-tier SEC team and, from a size and talent standpoint, looks like the top dog in the ACC.
Enter the Florida Gators, who are also under heavy pressure to win. Billy Napier, also in year three, has struggled to win, amassing an unimpressive 11-14 record. The Gators face the toughest schedule of anyone this year, and if Napier continues this downward trend, there is a very good possibility that he will be fired during the season or at its end.
For the Canes, winning this game is monumental. Not only would it be huge from a recruiting standpoint—as Florida and the University of Miami often target the same players in-state—but it could serve as the game that sends the Gators’ season into a spiral, leading to Napier’s firing. Last year, the Canes’ beatdown of Texas A&M sent Jimbo Fisher packing, as he never recovered from the loss to Miami. So how do the Gators and Canes match up? Who has the upper hand?
Keys to Victory
For Miami, it starts at the quarterback position with Cam Ward. Ward was arguably the top quarterback in the transfer portal this past cycle, and Miami managed to fend off Ohio State, FSU, and the NFL to secure his services. Miami has not had a quarterback this talented and with such high expectations to win big since Ken Dorsey donned the jersey for the Canes. Last year, Miami struggled at quarterback with Tyler Van Dyke, who was a turnover machine, throwing 12 interceptions over a five-game span that destroyed the Canes’ promising season.
There has been some concern that Ward does not protect the football, but it is important to note that last year he played behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. With the Canes, he will be playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the nation and won’t be forced to scramble for his life on every other play. A Cam Ward with time to throw is a Heisman candidate-type quarterback. Expect Ward to be a monster this season, improving significantly in efficiency and reducing turnovers.
It also helps that the Canes reloaded, adding a powerhouse running back in Damien Martinez to complement Mark Fletcher, who had a breakout freshman season last year. Martinez was one of the top running backs in the nation, with 194 carries for 1,185 yards, nine touchdowns, and an average of 6.1 yards per carry. The last time Miami had a running back rush for 1,000 yards was in 2016 when Mark Walton did so. Martinez is a shifty runner who excels at gaining positive yards. Last year alone, he forced 57 missed tackles and ranked eleventh in the nation in yards after contact. Martinez has great vision, finds the soft spots in defenses, and can cut on a dime, usually finding a crease between the tackles or on the outside for big gains.
Not only will Ward have an elite running back, but he will also benefit from a receiving corps that was among the best in the nation last year. Xavier Restrepo was a standout, with 85 receptions for 1,092 yards and six touchdowns, despite having a turnover-prone quarterback. Jacolby George added 57 receptions for 864 yards and eight touchdown receptions. The Canes also added one of the top two wide receivers in the portal, Houston’s Sam Brown Jr., who has been one of the best, if not the best, wide receivers in camp. Brown had 62 receptions for 815 yards and three touchdowns in 2023.
Ward will have an embarrassment of riches offensively that he never had at Washington State, which is why I fully expect him to be the top quarterback in the ACC and in serious Heisman contention this year.
For Florida, they don’t have nearly the offensive firepower that Miami possesses. They have a below-average quarterback in Graham Mertz, a dink-and-dunk game manager. He is not a game-changer and will struggle against the best defensive front in the ACC. I expect Napier to rely heavily on the running game and short, quick passes drawn up for Mertz to hit running backs and tight ends. I don’t see Mertz as a quarterback capable of stretching the field.
So, what is the key for Florida?
This is where it gets ugly for the Gators. They had hoped star running back Trevor Etienne would be a significant factor against Miami, but Etienne transferred in an ugly breakup to rival Georgia. Now, as game day approaches, it was leaked from Gators camp that starting running back Montrell Johnson Jr. is hurt and might not play. Even if Johnson plays, he might be severely limited, making his impact more symbolic than productive.
It seems that Florida’s best shot is for Eugene Wilson to have a monster game. Wilson had a strong year last year for the Gators and is unquestionably their best playmaker. Wilson recorded 61 receptions for 538 yards and six touchdowns last season. Expect Napier to try to get him involved early and test Miami’s revamped cornerback room. The issue for Florida is that with Johnson hurt, they are now a one-dimensional team that will need to force Mertz into making plays beyond three to four yards. Miami is too strong to be beaten by just one player in this game.
X-Factor
The X-factor for the Hurricanes is Lance Guidry. Guidry is set to have the best defensive line in the ACC. With upgrades in Simeon Barrow, CJ Clark, Marley Cook, and a slew of elite defensive ends such as Reuben Bain Jr., the best defensive end in the ACC (and possibly the nation), alongside a fully healthy Akheem Mesidor, Elijah Alston, and Tyler Baron, Miami is set to bring in the best pass rush since 2004. Miami’s defensive line is championship-level, and Lance Guidry will have athletes at his disposal here in Miami that he could only dream of at Marshall. Last year at Marshall, Guidry’s defense ranked:
1st in 3rd down defense
2nd in stop rate
3rd in pass efficiency defense
3rd in defensive efficiency
3rd in yards per play
5th in turnovers gained
5th in rushing defense
Now imagine that defensive line going up against Florida’s offensive line, which their own writers have admitted struggled in camp and is a clear liability. Miami is strong on both the offensive and defensive lines, and that advantage will be evident on Saturday when Florida’s offensive line is overwhelmed by Guidry’s blitz packages and chaotic defensive schemes.
With the best defensive line in the ACC, and with big-time middle linebacker Kiko Mauigoa returning for his senior season, Wesley Bissainthe, and big-time transfer Jaylin Alderman, Guidry will have a treasure trove of athletes to game plan for the Gators. He prioritizes physicality, speed, and varied blitz packages that create chaos for the offense, disrupting their rhythm and forcing rushed decisions by opposing quarterbacks that lead to easy turnovers. With the talent he has on defense, I expect a Guidry masterclass.
Implications
For the Canes, a win over Florida at The Swamp would be a game-changer. Going into a hostile environment and handling an SEC team would further prove that Miami is no longer afraid of the spotlight. Last year, they defeated a talented Texas A&M team and showed that when they are locked in, they have the talent to compete with anyone in the nation. They are also in big-time recruiting battles for Vernell Brown Jr., Joshua Moore, and Ben Hanks, three players who chose Florida over Miami. A big-time win over Florida could help start the downward spiral of the Gators, who face the toughest schedule in the nation—a murderer’s row that could get Billy Napier fired during the season—and allow some of these highly coveted recruits to reconsider Miami.
For Florida, this is a life-or-death game. If there is any coach whose job is on the hot seat, it’s Billy Napier. With an 11-14 record and a season on pace for just 4-5 wins, Napier simply cannot afford to lose to Miami at The Swamp. If the Gators lose, it is nearly certain that this game will mark the beginning of the end of the Napier era, and he will not make it to next season as the Gators’ head coach.
Prediction
Since Mario Cristobal arrived, he has preached hard work and emphasized the process. Over the past two years, the rebuild has been slower than fans hoped for. Cristobal has had to retool his coaching staff and bring in various players through the portal two years in a row. During that time, he has managed to bring in two top-seven recruiting classes. One of those classes is entering its sophomore season, and now the Canes have retooled into one of the most talented teams in the nation, and the most talented team top to bottom in the ACC. Their running back room, quarterback room, defensive line, and offensive line are all elite. They have a strong linebacker corps, and their cornerbacks are experienced. Their only question mark is the safety room, but even there, they have five-star caliber talent waiting in the wings. For the first time in the Cristobal era, the Hurricanes are starting to look like a championship-caliber team. I believe this team will win at least 10 games this year if they stay healthy, and they will win the ACC Championship. I expect the march toward the 12-team playoff to kick off this Saturday as Miami handles the Gators at The Swamp, running away with the game in the second half.
Prediction: Canes 37, Gators 20
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