Miami Hurricanes Favored to Win Regular Season Finale According to ESPN Analytics

The Miami Hurricanes are looking to end their regular season on a high note this Friday after losing three consecutive games to the North Carolina State Wolfpack, Florida State Seminoles, and Louisville Cardinals in Atlantic Coast Conference play, most recently a tightly contested 38-31 loss to the top-10 ranked Cardinals in a home game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

That three-game slide has dropped Miami to a 6-5 record, including 2-5 in the ACC, after a 4-0 start to open their 2023 regular season campaign in September. Thanksgiving week will now provide an opportunity for the Hurricanes to get back on track with a road matchup against the Boston College Eagles (6-5, 3-4 ACC) on Friday at 12:00 p.m. EST at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. What is a reasonable expectation for UM in their final game of the regular season?

To gain insight, let’s turn to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) for guidance as we have for projections this season. The ESPN FPI, an analytical tool, currently ranks Miami as the 25th best team in the nation, which is one rank up from their standing a week ago at 26th. It also ranks Miami’s offense 35th nationally and the defense at 31st. To understand the essence of the ESPN FPI, it assesses a team’s strength, aiming to be an accurate predictor of future performance, revealing how many points above or below the average a team stands. The predictions rely on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season, incorporating FPI, past outcomes, and the upcoming schedule.

When we check UM’s projected expected performance in their final regular-season game, the FPI currently predicts Miami to finish with a 6.8-5.2 record, which is down from last week’s projected 7.3-4.7 record but still leaning toward a 7-5 finish for the 2023 regular season.

The FPI ranks Miami 39th in the nation in terms of the strength of schedule for the season. Here’s a look at the final regular season matchup and its respective win probabilities, according to the FPI:

* November 24th, at Boston College Eagles (6-4, 3-3 ACC) – 78.9% probability of winning.

The next challenge for the Miami Hurricanes after the Boston College matchup will be a bowl game for the first time since the 2020 season. Miami and numerous other teams had opted out of their bowl games due to COVID-19 protocols during the 2021 season, and Miami posted a 5-7 record during the 2022 season, which left them one game short of bowl eligibility in Mario Cristobal’s first season as the head coach of the football program.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi