Marlins Playoff Outlook

With only nine games remaining in the regular season, the Miami Marlins find themselves on the cusp of playoff contention, marking the first time since their 2003 World Series win that they have played a full season with such prospects. What initially appeared to be a mere formality prior to the All-Star break, when the Marlins boasted the third-best record in baseball, took a dramatic turn for the worse in the latter half of the season as the team seemed to implode. However, following the trade deadline, Miami’s offense experienced a resurgence, with Jake Burger and Josh Bell delivering much-needed power to the team. So, what do the Marlins need to do to secure a playoff spot?

To begin with, the Marlins must heat up at the plate in their upcoming nine games. Their run differential remains dismal at -42 for the year. To provide context, here are the run differentials for the other teams competing for a wild card spot:

Phillies: +74
Diamondbacks: -16
Cubs: +91
Reds: -47
At the time of writing, Miami is only half a game ahead of the Reds and is tied with the Cubs, who currently possess the best run differential among the five teams vying for the final three wild card spots. The Marlins managed to put together some impressive offensive displays against the Phillies and pulled off a surprising sweep of the league-leading Atlanta Braves, showcasing their best form of the season during that stretch.

Regrettably, Miami struggled against the much weaker Mets, a team far from playoff contention, with their offense faltering and losing two out of three games. Miami’s offense must come alive in these remaining nine games, which include matchups against the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers (87-77), the New York Mets (71-82), and the Pittsburgh Pirates (72-81).

Miami’s starting pitching has remained consistent, even in the absence of their ace Sandy Alcanatara, who was starting to regain his form after a disappointing season. Recent success has been carried by Luzardo and Garrett. However, the Achilles’ heel for Miami this year has been their bullpen. Miami needs to find a way to secure leads, and if necessary, starters may need to pitch into the seventh inning instead of their usual sixth-inning outings. The bullpen struggles add more pressure on both the offense and the pitching staff, making it imperative for Miami to treat each remaining game like a playoff matchup.

In order to clinch a playoff berth, Miami needs to win six of its remaining nine games. The series against the Brewers promises to be challenging, and if Miami cannot win at least two out of the next three games, they must secure at least one victory against the Brewers. The remaining six games are against the struggling Mets and Pirates. To comfortably secure a playoff spot, the Marlins would need to win five out of these six games. Is it feasible? The Pirates have an abysmal run differential of -96, more than twice as worse as the Marlins’. It’s expected that a team on the brink of the playoffs will excel against a team like the Pirates, aiming for a sweep and at the very least, two out of three wins against the Mets.

For Miami, the final stretch is upon them, and the playoffs are within reach. Starters need to step up and demand more innings, while hitters must approach games against seemingly weaker opponents with the same focus they displayed against the Phillies and Braves. If Miami can establish consistent hitting and extend their starters’ outings, they stand a good chance of making the playoffs after a full season, a feat they haven’t achieved since their 2003 World Series victory.

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