Keys to the Series: Heat vs. Nuggets

The stage is set, a Cinderella story in the eighth-seed Miami Heat from the Eastern Conference and the top-seed Denver Nuggets from the Western Conference will compete for a championship in the NBA Finals. There were not many people that expected Jimmy Butler and Miami to be in this position based on their regular season performance; while in stark contrast everyone had their eyes on Denver and their two-time Most Valuable Player of the Year award winner, Nikola Jokic.

Fast forward through three rounds of the NBA Playoffs, the Heat have shown through results that they belong here, and Denver proved they are more than just a “regular season team.”

Denver would handle Minnesota fairly easily in the first round through five games, then they would take down a star-studded Phoenix Suns (Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Chris Paul) in six games in the semifinals.

The biggest shocker came in the Western Conference Finals, the Nuggets would matchup with a Lakers team that was riding the best record of any team since the All-Star Game break; it didn’t matter as Denver took down LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Lakers in a sweep, ultimately triggering LeBron James to consider retirement.

Let’s be honest here, we all know LeBron is coming back next year but Denver totally took Los Angeles to the shed in that series and they were not getting enough credit; it’s Denver’s first trip to the NBA Finals, come on.

Miami’s road to the NBA Finals was much different, they like to do things the “hard way” as they say. They would survive the Play-In Tournament, where Miami lost their first game to the Atlanta Hawks, but took down the Chicago Bulls in their second game, thanks to a late fourth quarter rally that secured the eighth and final seed in the East.

Then came the actual playoffs, Miami would upset the NBA’s best regular season team in five games, the Milwaukee Bucks. They would beat the best New York Knicks squad in a decade in the semifinals through six games, then it was the Boston Celtics in the conference finals.

Miami would race out to a 3-0 series lead, they seemed to be on the verge of a sweep but had a collapse in the third quarter of Game 4 that would last up until the final minute of Game 6; Jimmy Butler would connect on all three of his free-throws with three seconds remaining to give Miami the lead, Derrick White would save the day with 0.1 seconds on a tip-in off a Marcus Smart shot to force Game 7. Should we talk about Game 7? Just a little, Miami absolutely dismantled Boston in Game 7 on Boston’s home floor, a 19-point victory which was not the largest deficit of the night.

Look, maybe some NBA fans or I should really say some analysts are not excited about the upcoming finals matchup between Denver and Miami, it’s not their darling Celtics-Lakers rivalry; but the reality is both Miami and Denver not only proved that they deserve to be on the biggest stage, they actually earned it and you can’t refute that considering the teams they defeated to get there.

Let’s be real here, this should have been expected from Miami and one very key component to the reason, Pat Riley, the 78-year-old Heat executive is set for another trip to the NBA Finals. As a player, assistant coach, head coach and executive, Riley has reached the NBA Finals 19 times. That means, since 1972, when he first made it to the Finals (as a reserve player on the Los Angeles Lakers) until now, Riley has made an appearance just about once every 2 1/2 years on average, in addition to being a part of 25% of NBA Finals in its entire existence. That’s 19 more Finals appearances than the Denver Nuggets made in the history of their franchise, until now.

Regular Season Head-to-Head

The Denver Nuggets would get the best of the Miami Heat twice during the 2022-2023 regular season. Denver took the first matchup at home over Miami in December, 124-119, where Nikola Jokic would record a triple-double. You can guess again, Jokic would put up another triple-double the night before Valentines Day in a 112-108 victory on the Heat’s home court.

The margin of victory was not big for Denver when they’d matchup with Miami during the regular season, double two-possession wins, but this is the postseason and I think everyone should understand by now that Miami is indeed a different team in the playoffs; what counts is now, what are both teams producing in the playoffs?

Keys To The Matchup

Can Miami Contain Jamal Murray? – Jamal Murray certainly deserves more credit for his game and performances, he feels that he should have a bigger spotlight, and he’ll have his opportunity in the finals. The task won’t be easy though, he has to be the best player in the series, win a championship and outperform Nikola Jokic. That’s not easy at all but Murray is playing his best ball right now, he’s averaging 27.7 points per game in the playoffs, while shooting 48% overall, 40% from the three-point line and 92% on free throws. He is also coming off a tremendous Western Conference Finals performance, where he was a big problem for the Lakers to defend on the perimeter.

Murray is comfortable on any spot on the floor and can score multiple ways, he does not need the ball in his hands every second to impact the game offensively. His chemistry with Nikola Jokic is practically perfect and it allows Murray to play off the ball and roam free to create open shots. If the Heat fail on defense to contain Murray from being unleashed through Jokic’s facilitation, it could be a short and disappointing series for Miami.

Look for Jimmy Butler to take on this matchup much more individually compared to a prior matchup, rather than the switches on his assignment between Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown of the Celtics. Murray has shown in the playoffs that he can put up gaudy points for an extended stretch and Miami won’t have the luxury to switch to Bam Adebayo on Murray on the perimeter, they have to contain Jokic in the post too. Murray is not the most talented player in this series, but he could be the best if the Heat can’t adjust on defense from their switch and zone approach.

Who Guards Jimmy Butler? – The Nuggets have quite the challenge when it comes to guarding Jimmy Butler. He’s the one they will key in on despite Caleb Martin’s emergence in the playoffs for Miami, Playoff Jimmy can give Denver defensive fits. Butler provides just the right mixture in his skill set; he is too strong for most guards to go head up with and too fast for most forwards. Denver will probably turn to Aaron Gordon once again for this tough assignment in the postseason. Gordon has been one of Denver’s best defensive players during their run, he brings size at 6-foot-8, and just enough quickness for the task at hand. Gordon has taken on assignments between Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns, Phoenix’s Kevin Durant and Los Angeles Lakers’ Lebron James, he had a few performances containing those stars just enough for playoff victories.

While Jimmy Butler doesn’t shoot three-pointers very often, which helps Gordon as he might not need to stretch to the perimeter, Butler seems to have found his stroke from deep when he fired off three in a route over Boston in Game 7. Butler will pose challenges for Gordon through driving the lanes and mid-range jump shots. The best thing for Aaaron Gordon to do, don’t make Jimmy Butler mad or talk trash to him, it’s a lesson some NBA players are still learning; don’t poke the bear that is Jimmy Butler.

Can The Heat’s Undrafted Stay Hot? – The Heat are winning playoff games with a collection of unheralded and undrafted players. Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson, Max Strus and Gabe Vincent have been pivotal to Miami’s success in the playoffs. They are proudly carrying a massive chip on their shoulders and making the argument that the results of the NBA Draft are not the end all be all. Caleb Martin had a very strong case to be the recipient of the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, these players are getting crucial minutes down the stretch and making the most of it; in addition to outplaying other more decorated players around the league, when it matters most. Three of them (Martin, Strus and Vincent) are about to step foot on the biggest stage of their careers. Can they continue to keep up their pace with momentous shots and game breaking plays?

The NBA Finals and its bright lights have proven to be too much for players with far more accomplishments in their careers than the aforementioned players have to this point, but pressure creates diamonds and this ragtag group lives for the big stage, they’ve heard all the chatter of being doubted but yet they continue to prevail.

Slowing Down Nikola Jokic? –

Can Miami slow down Nikola Jokic? Likely not, because not a single defense has answered that question confidently this year. Opponents in the regular season couldn’t bring down Jokic. The playoffs came and the Timberwolves, Suns and Lakers all came up short of containing his dominance.

The Western Conference Finals Most Valuable Player is averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 10.3 assists in the playoffs. He has also recorded an NBA record eight triple-doubles in 15 games during the playoffs. Jokic is also making an incredible 47% of his attempted three-pointers, he is the key to Denver’s exciting offense, everything runs through him.

Denver’s offense has improved its efficiency each round of the playoffs despite the fact that the competition has grown fiercer, for a team that does not have much postseason experience.

The Los Angeles Lakers had the best defense in the playoffs until the conference finals, they collapsed in four games and struggled mightily to put a halt to that attack. Now, it’s Miami’s turn and they had success against another offensive juggernaut. The Heat are fresh off disposing of Boston’s second-ranked regular season offense.

Bam Adebayo will be taking the Jokic assignment and if you recall the matchup based on the Heat’s regular-season approach to defending Jokic, Bam will stay on him as much as possible throughout this series; unless Erik Spoelstra adjusts. Miami is known to be a switching defense, and true to that reputation, Adebayo defended the second-most picks with switches during the regular season, that wasn’t the case when he’s faced Jokic.

The Heat switched on 8% of screens that Jokic set against them this season, that is their lowest percentage against any of the top-50 screeners that they had faced in the NBA. Miami’s average switch rate against those top-50 was 28% overall, that’s quite a gap. The Heat also didn’t blitz a Jokic screen once in the regular season and sent only one hard double at him in Jokic’s 20 post ups.

Adebayo is strong enough to match up with Jokic one on one, and quick enough to get around him to play the passing lanes and create turnovers. Regardless, it is still a daunting task for anyone to guard the two-time MVP in Jokic, even a four-time All-Defensive Team honoree in Adebayo.

Jokic will also poke holes in Miami’s defense when it comes to their preference of zone concepts. During the regular season, Miami’s Erik Spoelstra used zone defense schemes more than any other team in NBA history, and Spoelstra has continued to use that approach throughout the playoffs with, to his credit, much success.

By-The-Numbers –

The Denver Nuggets have scored 119.7 points per 100 possessions during their 15 playoff games to this point. That mark is the largest offensive output of any team through three rounds of the playoffs in the last six years. The Cleveland Cavaliers with LeBron James and Kyrie Irving averaged 122.1 points per 100 possessions through the first three rounds in 2017.

The more impressive part about Denver’s offense in the playoffs, they’ve recorded that statistic against a group of the NBA’s better defensive teams during the season in Minnesota (10th), Phoenix (7th) and the Los Angeles Lakers (12th).

During the Western Conference Finals, the Nuggets scored 15.8 more points per 100 possessions (122.3) than the Lakers had allowed through the first two rounds (106.5).

The Nuggets hold a 55.9% effective field goal rate during the playoffs which ranks third among all teams in the postseason. They also protect the ball extremely well, having committed only 11.7 turnovers per 100 possessions, which ranks first of all playoff teams.

The Heat on the other hand, they come in at sixth defensively, allowing 111.5 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs. They deserve a lot of credit though; they faced two offenses between the Knicks and Celtics in the last two rounds that ranked within the top five in the regular season.

Miami was ranked third during the regular season in opponent turnover rate. Jimmy Butler’s defensive prowess also continues to show, he has 35 steals this postseason with a comfortable lead of 10 more than any other player in the league.

Playoff Coaching Experience Matters – NBA fans and analysts tend to have differing opinions when it comes to the actual impact a coach has on the game. On one side of the spectrum people would say it’s a star driven league and the other is somewhere between a coach and star’s impact in unison. The argument that can be made for Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra, he has always kept Miami competitive despite the makeup of its roster from year to year. Spoelstra has taken the Heat to thirteen playoff appearances since he assumed the head coaching role for the franchise in 2008. Eight of those thirteen playoff appearances have seen first round victories, seven of those thirteen wound up being Eastern Conference Finals appearances, six of the thirteen have turned into NBA Finals visits; Miami has won two NBA Championships under Spoelstra and will compete for their third under his leadership, you get the picture.

Spoelstra has no issues when it comes to making lineup changes or checking anyone’s ego at the door, he benched NBA veteran Kyle Lowry for Gabe Vincent, which turned out to be crucial to Miami’s success in this year’s playoff run. He even buried Duncan Robinson and his big contract on the bench during the regular season, just to bring him back to the playing rotation in the postseason and it’s paid off with a revival of his career; that goes without saying the decision to move Kevin Love to the bench in favor of Caleb Martin, who played a pivotal part in securing a series victory over the Boston Celtics and appears to be a future star.

Over the years, Spoelstra has risen to the top of the NBA ranks for one reason, consistent postseason success. Selling short the experience he has or this current Miami Heat team in terms of the playoffs would be an oversight, experience does matter, and he is one of the top five coaches of all time; that can’t be refuted. He has the opportunity to surpass Doc Rivers (111) for fourth all-time in NBA Playoff victories as a head coach, if Spoelstra and Miami were to take down Denver in the finals. Miami has a clear advantage in terms of coaching reputation and experience. The Heat and Spoelstra have been here plenty of times before, and the Nuggets, in reality, are very new to this.

Prediction

While Jokic owns a pair of Most Valuable Player of the Year awards and is arguably the best center in the basketball world, he will have to have the greatest series of his career if Denver expects this Miami team to just lay down. Spoelstra will have Miami ready, like they have been since the onset of the playoffs, and the moment is never too big for them. Jimmy Butler lives for the biggest of stages, Caleb Martin is a rising star that teams didn’t account for, and Miami continues to do what everyone doesn’t expect them to do, win.

I’m going against the grain here because it seems people are once again not paying enough attention to the determination that Miami has on the court this year. Almost everyone is going to pick Denver in this series just like they picked the Bucks, Knicks and Celtics over the Heat; until they learned not to do that and then had a sudden rush of amnesia before the next series even began, by doubting Miami again.

I expect history to be made. I believe Miami will be hoisting their fourth championship in franchise history two weeks from now; as an eighth-seed for the first time in NBA history. There is your storyline for the people who said Miami and Denver won’t produce the same television ratings as a Lakers and Celtics finals would, we’ve already seen that enough, how about something historic?

Heat in 6

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