It’s Been a Brutal July for the Miami Hurricanes. After a spring filled with optimism and momentum, July has been nothing short of a disaster for the Miami Hurricanes on the recruiting trail. Many within the program—and several local insiders—believed the Canes were building toward the nation’s top recruiting class. But instead, Miami whiffed on nearly all of its major targets this month.
Things were looking up back on May 13, when the Canes landed the nation’s No. 1 overall recruit over Georgia and Oregon. That commitment sparked a scorching-hot run in June, yielding:
⭐️⭐️⭐️ LB JJ Edwards (flipped from Rutgers )
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ WR Vance Spafford (flipped from Georgia )
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ TE Israel Briggs (chose Miami over LSU)
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ WR Tyran Evans (flipped from Tennessee )
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ EDGE Asharri Charles
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ DT Anthony Kennedy Jr.
With that foundation, Miami was expected to surge into the top 3 nationally by July.
But instead, the month has been a gut punch. The Canes missed out on virtually all of their top remaining targets—including the whales. Just how bad was it?
They missed on:
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ DT Lamar Brown
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ DT James Johnson
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ DT Nolan Wilson
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ DT Keshawn Stancil
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ DL Bryce Perry-Wright
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ TE Zachery Turner
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ RB Jae Lamar
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ S Devin Jackson
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ S Blake Stewart
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ S Tyriq Green
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ WR Calvin Russell
To make matters worse, Miami is now in a fight for elite interior OL ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Breck Kolojay, who is trending toward Georgia or USC.
And the latest blow? ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ RB Derrek Cooper (Hollywood Chaminade-Madonna) is now expected to commit to Texas on July 20.
So what happened?
Why the sudden recruiting struggles? Did Mario Cristobal forget how to recruit?
Not quite. In the post-NIL era, three major factors consistently drive elite recruiting success:
-NIL
-NFL Development
-On-Field Success
NIL
Since the advent of NIL, Miami has been a major player. The Canes have invested heavily and aggressively in both high school recruiting and the portal. Cristobal landed back-to-back top-10 classes in his first two seasons, and Miami currently holds another top-10 class.
They’ve signed multiple top-100 players, and in the portal, landed two of the nation’s top quarterbacks in Cam Ward and Carson Beck over the last two cycles.
When it comes to NIL infrastructure and funding, Miami is among the best in the country. But as we’ll see, NIL alone isn’t enough. The schools that dominate recruiting since 2022 do more than throw around money.
NFL Development
The next major factor is NFL projection. Players want to make it to the league—and go early.
Since Cristobal’s arrival, Miami has produced:
• 1 First-Round Pick: Cam Ward (2025 projection)
• 2 Second-Round Picks: Tyrique Stevenson (2023), Elijah Arroyo (2025 projection)
Just three top-2 round selections in three years.
Now compare that to the top recruiting powers:
Alabama
• 8 First-Round Picks
• 4 Second-Round Picks
Georgia
• 10 First-Round Picks
• 6 Second-Round Picks
Texas
• 6 First-Round Picks
• 4 Second-Round Picks
Ohio State
• 10 First-Round Picks
• 3 Second-Round Picks
Oregon
• 5 First-Round Picks
• 1 Second-Round Pick
The message is clear: the top schools are offering more than NIL. They are selling NFL development, and backing it up.
On-Field Success
Then there’s the one thing Miami still hasn’t achieved: winning.
In Cristobal’s first year, the team regressed from Manny Diaz’s final season, going just 5-7. In year two, Miami improved slightly to 7-6 but collapsed down the stretch with three straight losses. Last season, Miami reached 10 wins, but missed both the ACC Championship Game and a playoff berth.
The Canes haven’t won a bowl game since 2016, have never won an ACC Championship, and have never made the College Football Playoff.
Meanwhile, Cristobal is already on his second offensive coordinator, third defensive coordinator, and has experienced considerable staff turnover outside of Alex Mirabal.
Here’s how Miami stacks up to the top recruiting schools since 2022:
Miami (Cristobal)
• Total Record: 22–16
• ACC Record: 12–12
• Bowl Record: 0–2
• Playoff Appearances: 0
• Conference Titles: 0
Oregon (Lanning)
• Total Record: 35–6
• Conference Record: 24–3
• Bowl Record: 2–1
• Playoff Appearances: 1
• Conference Titles: 2
• NY6 Wins: 1
Texas
• Total Record: 33–10
• Conference Record: 21–6
• Bowl Record: 1–2
• Playoff Appearances: 2
• Conference Titles: 1
Ohio State
• Total Record: 34–5
• Conference Record: 23–4
• Bowl Record: 2–1
• Playoff Appearances: 2
• NY6 Wins: 2
• National Championship: 2024
Alabama
• Total Record: 36–7
• Conference Record: 22–2
• Bowl Record: 2–2
• Playoff Appearances: 2
• Conference Titles: 2
• NY6 Wins: 1
Georgia
• Total Record: 41–5
• Conference Record: 28–3
• Bowl Record: 3–1
• Playoff Appearances: 3
• NY6 Wins: 2
• National Championship: 1
While Miami holds its own in NIL, they are falling behind in NFL development and on-field success—two areas that carry just as much weight, if not more, for elite recruits.
Cristobal’s tenure is at a turning point. It’s put-up-or-shut-up time. The program must win something significant starting with an ACC title or a playoff berth.
There’s still hope. This year, Carson Beck, Reuben Bain, and Francis Mauigoa could all be first- or second-round NFL Draft picks. That would go a long way in helping Cristobal sell his vision.
But if Miami continues to fall short in the postseason and lacks player development, top recruits will continue to look elsewhere.
A Texas A&M Warning?
Let Miami be warned by the cautionary tale of Jimbo Fisher.
Fisher spent six seasons at Texas A&M, compiled a 45–25 record (27–21 in SEC play), and won four bowl games, better results than Cristobal has posted so far. In 2022, Fisher signed the No. 1 class in the nation. He was a consistent 8-9 win coach and was not able to take the next step and win conference championships or reach the playoffs.
He followed that with a 5–7 season, a 6–4 campaign, and then got fired.
What happened to recruiting?
• 2023 Class: No. 15 Composite
• 2024 Class: No. 19 Composite
• 2025 Class (under Elko): No. 10 Composite
If Mike Elko doesn’t win big soon, A&M may face the same fate all over again.
Recruits are no longer just looking for bags. They’re looking for development. They’re looking for wins.
Miami knows the importance what winning this season means to the program. A source revealed to me that they are laser focused on the season and on field results this year.
“ 2025 is the final exam. We have to win a championship and play meaningful January football. Winning is the only thing that matters.”
Miami believes that this roster is the most complete roster they have had since Cristobal took over. The one thing left to do is to win. If you win they will come. If the Canes take a step back, they will continue to be viewed as a mediocre program. The time for talking and recruiting pitches is over, the time for winning and showing results is now.
The time for talk is over.
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