As the Miami Hurricanes prepare to battle against the Florida Gators at The Rock this Saturday, the Canes have looked not only like one of the top three teams in college football, but arguably the best team since 2003. Mario Cristobal is entering year four, and the Canes look “like what a championship team is supposed to look like.” Cristobal has once again stacked the roster with top recruiting classes, and Miami has once again raided the portal, adding an elite quarterback in Carson Beck who has been nothing short of spectacular and revamping their entire secondary. In fact, Miami now resembles a top-tier SEC team and, from a size and talent standpoint, looks like the clear-cut favorite in the ACC.
Enter the Florida Gators, who are also under heavy pressure to win. Billy Napier, also in year four, has struggled, amassing an unimpressive 20-21 record including a 10-15 record in the SEC. How hot is Napier’s seat? For context, Florida fired Dan Mullen with a 34-15 record. To make matters worse, the Gators face the toughest schedule of anyone this year, and if Napier loses against Miami, there is a very good possibility that he will be fired after the Miami game or a couple of games after.
For the Canes, winning this game is monumental. Not only would it be huge from a recruiting standpoint as they have over 100 recruits attending and College Gameday in town, but it could serve as the game that sends the Gators’ season into a spiral, leading to Napier’s firing. Last year, the Canes’ beatdown of Florida at the Swamp set the tone—can they do it again at The Rock?
Keys to Victory
For Miami, it starts at the quarterback position with Carson Beck. Beck was arguably a top-two quarterback in the transfer portal this past cycle, and Miami managed to secure his services. Last year, the Canes saw Cam Ward produce the best single season at quarterback in Miami’s program history that ended with Ward going first overall as Miami won 10 games for the first time since 2017. This time, Miami has a more complete team defensively, is healthier than last year, and looks primed to contend for a national championship.
Beck looks like a completely different player compared to last year when he played behind a bad offensive line with the Bulldogs. With the Canes, he will be playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the nation and won’t be forced to make rushed throws. The Canes’ all-world defensive line will go up against a Gators defensive line that has struggled to pressure the passer with the lowest pressure rate in Power 4 football and is 123rd in the country in sacks. The Gators’ best defensive player, Caleb Banks, will not play in this game, and it seems their 2nd and 3rd DT options, George Gumbs and Michai Boireau, will also not play. Florida’s most talented edge rusher, L.J. McCray, will also miss the game, meaning that a defensive line that was already at a disadvantage is now at a severe disadvantage against the Canes’ monster line.
It also helps that Beck has receivers that can catch the ball. Freshman receiver Malachi Toney has been one of Beck’s favorite targets and has 228 yards on the year with a touchdown. C.J. Daniels is making acrobatic catches every week and already has three touchdown catches on the year. Not to mention another freshman, Joshua Moore, who had his coming-out party against USF with two touchdowns. That’s not even counting Keelan Marion and Tony Johnson, veteran transfer portal additions who are solid contributors. Now, Joshisa Trader—arguably the Canes’ best wide receiver in camp—is expected to return against Florida in this game.
The Canes also have a powerhouse running game led by Mark Fletcher, who is breaking out into a superstar. So far, Fletcher has 42 carries for 272 yards, four touchdowns, and an average of 6.5 yards per carry in just three games. Fletcher is on pace for a 1,000+ yard season and a 15+ touchdown season. The last time Miami had a running back produce at that level was prime Mark Walton. Miami will also be getting Jordan Lyle back this game, who is now fully healthy, and they have the luxury of having a starter-level P4 running back as third string in Charmar Brown, who already has 126 yards and two touchdowns as Fletcher’s backup.
Not only will Beck have an elite offense at his disposal, but he will also benefit from one of the top defenses in the nation. Miami’s secondary is vastly improved with additions such as Ethan O’Connor, Xavier Lucas, and O.J. Frederique. The Canes added one of the top safeties in the portal in Zechariah Poyser as well, who has been very solid. But the real surprise has been true freshman safety Bryce Fitzgerald, who continues to earn snaps after recording two interceptions in two games.
To support the defensive backs, Miami also has one of the best defensive lines in the nation, with Rueben Bain making the case that he is the top overall football player in college football. He is joined by Akheem Mesidor, who already has 13 total tackles and two sacks in three games. Justin Scott, Armondo Blount, and David Blay have also been wrecking teams’ offensive lines, creating turnovers and harassing quarterbacks into making rushed throws. Miami’s defense is also solid at linebacker with “Popo” Aguirre manning the middle, with Wesley Bissainthe, and Mohamed Toure all playing solid on the outside. Coach Heatherman has the defense playing aggressive, and Miami is rarely allowing busted coverages. Expect the Canes to continue to play aggressive and put pressure on a struggling D.J. Lagway, who has struggled this year with accuracy and has been a turnover machine—six interceptions on the year, including a whopping five against LSU.
Florida’s Keys to Victory
This is where it gets ugly for the Gators. They had hoped D.J. Lagway would be a superstar-caliber player and a significant factor against Miami, but Lagway has been a low-tier quarterback with more interceptions than touchdowns and a QBR of 53.2, good for 77th in the nation.
As stated before, Florida’s pass rush is decimated. It seems that their only option is hoping Miami plays a sloppy game with key turnovers that will give them short fields. Jaden Baugh is clearly their most dangerous player with 243 yards, a touchdown, and 6.6 YPC. Florida will need to create turnovers and hope that Baugh can have a big game in order for them to have a shot to win.
The Gators also have a talented true freshman wide receiver in Vernell Brown III, who has 16 receptions for 197 yards and has proven to be a dangerous and electric player. He already made one of the best catches in college football this season in Week one. Miami needs to pay attention to Brown because he is a game-changing player who can shift momentum with just one touch.
Prediction
I believe this game will be close for the first two quarters. This, after all, seems to be Napier’s last stand. The kids will come out and play their hearts out. I can see a 17-10 or 20-13 type game at the half. However, Miami is too good, too loaded at every position, and significantly better at the three most important positions in football: quarterback, offensive line, and defensive line. To add insult to injury, the Gators have their best defensive players hurt. I believe this will show up in the second half, where Miami will break the Gators’ will and essentially end Billy Napier’s head coaching career.
Final Score:
Miami – 37
Florida – 16
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